Sunday, February 1, 2015
執筆：デロイト トーマツ ファイナンシャルアドバイザリー株式会社
Raymond Weng Pong Woo
Raymond Weng Pong Woo
はじめに世界のインフラセクターにおける開発途上国のパートナーとしての役割の進化と、日本企業によるインフラ輸出の状況を踏まえ、日本企業による開発途上国におけるインフラ関連事業の展開・プロジェクト受注の活性化について、本稿では、政府開発援助（以下、ODA 〔Official Development Assistance〕）分野における三角開発協力（以下、TDC 〔Triangular Development Cooperation〕）という概念を考察したい。
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
On Post Partisanship
by Raymond Woo
Mat 29, 2013
What is post-partisanship?
According to American political theorist Mark Satin, it is an approach to dispute resolution between political factions in which collaboration and compromise are emphasized over party discipline and ideology. However, unlike bipartisanship which Canadian health policy expert Neil Seeman described as “horse-trading”, where patchwork legislation is crafted to allow all sides to feel satisfied that some thread of their vision or ideological essence found its way into law, post-partisanship is a solution-based approach to complex public policy problems in which the input of all sides are considered and utilised based on agreed-upon principles.
In the aftermath of the highly-divisive and emotional Malaysian 13th General Elections (GE), it is clear from the poll results that there are fundamentally two Malaysias — not necessarily Chinese and Malay, but urban and rural, or West Malaysia and East Malaysia. All sides have made their stance quite clearly, where urbanites of all races have cast their lots with Pakatan Rakyat, while the mostly-Malay rural heartland stuck to the symbol of the status quo, Barisan Nasional. The accumulated anger and distrust between the symbols of the two Malaysias have been laid bare.
And yet, the governance of Malaysia must not be allowed to remain stuck in May 5, 2013 forever. Somehow, solutions to mundane local and national problems must continue to be found.
It is known that Malaysia faces a lot of ills — a deteriorating national education system, rising national debt and inflation, corruption and abuse of power, increasing socio-economic policy and a disunited nationhood. These are the true concerns of most urban Malaysians regardless of race and religion, and patronage and communitarian identity are not as important to urbanites as they are to the rural folk. I believe it was the lack of attention and the will to address those national concerns that has led to the decimation of urban support for BN.
Yet, I believe that Malaysians who love their country from both sides of the political divide believe that these problems must be solved to prevent Malaysia from being labelled as the “sick man of Asia”. But the question is, of course, how?
Perhaps, post-partisanship may be useful. This approach does not necessitate the avowal of political neutrality amongst warring parties; rather, broad but clear objectives can form the basis of technical cooperation to achieve common outcomes. Compared to other countries, Malaysia is already fortunate in that we do have many rules of the game that mainstream parties agree upon and would not violate — a democratic and representative system of government, an equitable capitalist economic system, constitutional monarchy, and the need to take care of the welfare of all communities in Malaysia.
Post-partisanship in Malaysia involves building upon those agreed-upon rules and principles to pursue technical solutions for technical policy problems. Intermediate issues that are seen to be politically intractable and not directly related to the policy problem should be left alone, to be settled another day.
One method that can be used is the multicriteria decision analysis, where different parties are allowed to select weighted-solution criteria, and enables a neutral and independent body with assigned legislative powers to identify and remove partisan biases in any final policy solution. An example of this would be the bi-partisan Congressional committees on various policy issues in the US.
As an example of a policy issue, take the case of improving Malaysia’s competitiveness in our national education system. How do we judge an education system’s competitiveness? Usually, we rely on international math or reading scores, and this is where Malaysia has declined dramatically in the past few years. Now, who do we engage in a dialogue on this? Education policy experts, of course, from both sides of the political divide, such as PR’s Dr Ong Kian Ming and Tony Pua, apart from the Minister of Education and its senior civil servants. Then, we can sit down and plan how to improve math and English skills of our students, and how to give more autonomy and incentive to our public universities to improve their faculties and student bodies, and so on. Maintaining or abolishing vernacular school systems or UiTM is an intractable political problem that should be left for another day. Yet, increasing the education quality at these schools without abolishing any of them can also be done to improve general national competitiveness, as the pursuance of national unity may not be directly related to educational excellence.
Or take the issue of health policy, which has even less “political hot potatoes”. The current shortage of drugs and high prices in public hospitals may be due to the lack of suppliers, which are heavily regulated and subscribed by the Ministry of Health. Incidentally, pharmaceutical supply is subject to the Bumiputera quota rule. Sensibly, we should increase the quality and quantity of the suppliers to resolve the problem of drug shortage. If the sacred cow of Bumiputera quota has to go, it has to be done, as affirmative action may not be a necessity to the general public’s access to medicine and healthcare. Again, we can get healthy policy experts from both sides of the political divide to concretise the problems and solutions.
Once emotions from the GE have died down and heads become cooler, I hope Malaysians of all stripes can put aside their political beliefs and convictions and aim to resolve some of the pressing issues that eventually affect every single citizen in a methodical and results-based manner.
Monday, October 15, 2012
The Case for a “Sovereign-Debt Restructuring Agency”
by Mark Pui and Raymond Woo
(originally published in Loyarburok, 23 August, 2012, http://www.loyarburok.com/2012/08/23/case-%E2%80%9Csovereign-debt-restructuring-agency%E2%80%9D/)
A Critique on the Theories of Treaty Compliance
by Raymond Woo
(originally published in LoyarBurok, 29 May, 2012, http://www.loyarburok.com/2012/05/29/critique-theories-treaty-compliance/)
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Nov 24, 2011
I barely have time to sit down and contemplate about issues other than work nowadays, since my team is (or should be) wrapping up a major project in the coming few weeks. However, despite the hectic schedule, three different things piqued my curiosity.
The first thing is an interview with a director from the World Bank which I read in a local online newspaper. The director said that, while Malaysia has one of the most pro-business friendly regimes in the world, the main thing that is hindering us from progressing further into a high-income nation is our lack of skills and talent for high-level professional and technical jobs, and the resulting mismatch between demand and supply in the labor market. Indeed, our international rankings on business openness is pleasing: top 20 trading nation in the world (last I read Malaysia was Number 17), Number 18 in the World Bank’s Doing Business Index (a pretty good rank despite my grumblings in my October 20, 2011 article), a slew of tax and other incentives to attract foreign and local investment, a reasonably good record of the rule of law particularly in property rights, and so on.
But no matter how hard we try, we still lack the right people to man our growing and rapidly diversifying economy!
The second thing is related to the first issue, which is why (often extremely talented) Malaysians choose to return from a comfortable life overseas and contribute to our country. In my few months of being back from abroad, I have heard many stories, often heartwarming, sometimes heartbreaking. Of course, some returned due to ingrained idealism and confidence to help the country and community, and idealism and confidence are commodities that are not particularly abundant in this country. Others returned due to family commitments, while quite a few returned due to the economic and employment crisis engulfing developed economies. No matter what, these cosmopolitan Malaysians who have competed with the best in the world and earned their stripes are back to feed Malaysia’s growing appetite for advanced managerial and technical talent.
However, there are still more than 1 million Malaysians abroad, and more than 2/3 of them have at least an undergraduate degree. We all know that a lot is changing within the Malaysian government, the economy, politics, culture and many other aspects of life. The returning Malaysians I have met have often made tough decisions and took great risks to return, and returned they did, because of their confidence that Malaysia is changing for the better at an acceptable pace.
From the consultant point of view, I do agree that both government and society, and especially government, are changing for the better (often at a pace faster than we expect), becoming more accountable with public funds and performance, and becoming less tolerant of old diseases such as corruption and apathy. How else are private-sector consultants in Malaysia able to clinch an increasing number of jobs from the government such as PEMANDU and Khazanah Nasional Berhad? Cynicism aside, a great number of people do believe that public policy in Malaysia is far from moribund.
But, despite positive changes that are unprecedented in decades, what is holding back the return of the 1 million-plus Malaysians abroad, including the 60-70% of that number who are in the little island state less than 1 km south of Johor Bahru?
The third thing that struck my interest was of course, the victory of the Harimau Muda (Young Tigers), the Under-23 Malaysian football team in the final SEA Games football match with Indonesia just 2 days ago. Not since the days of legendary striker Mokhtar Dahari in the 70’s and 80’s has the Malaysian team clinched a back-to-back victory in SEA Games football, as the team was also champion in the previous SEA Games 2 years ago. Letters to the press were full of descriptions of tears flowing freely, or relieving the glory days of Malaysian football, or believing that Malaysia’s time has come again.
Wow, quite a spike in the level of confidence there, eh?
We know that confidence is the bedrock of the economy (just ask Ben Bernanke about confidence and the Great Depression, as he wrote his PhD thesis on it). At the same time, we also cannot underestimate how national pride and cultural confidence can lead someone to sacrifice a comfortable life for his country or community. Our deepest memories and feelings are etched in the land of our birth and upbringing. While memories and feelings cannot feed us, what can tip the balance between considerations of financial stability/career opportunities, and feelings of national pride/confidence in an overseas Malaysian’s decision-making in staying put abroad or returning? How can we help capitalize on such feelings through public policy to bring back our talents from abroad?
Perhaps, a revival of Malaysian football, and increased national pride?
Too wishy-washy and emotional a statement to be coming out from my mouth, isn’t it?
But, can there be a relationship the upsurge of positive changes in the Malaysian government, society and economy, and the upsurge of Malaysian football prowess? More importantly, how can one capitalize on either upsurge (or both upsurges) to convince overseas Malaysians that returning is not a bad idea?
Just some rambling thoughts on Thursday evening.
Jan 26, 2011
After several weeks of heavy workload and depressing news about the never-ending global economic gloom, social unrest and national scandals, I finally found a flicker of light at the end of the tunnel after reading Paul Krugman’s latest article, “Is Our Economy Healing?” (New York Times, Jan 22, 2012).
According to Krugman the incorrigible pessimist, data has shown that the main problems of the economic gloom in the US – depressed housing prices and high private debt are gradually easing. Despite today’s broad undersupply of housing in the US, Americans are not throwing money into buying property because of remaining uncertainties of the job market. However, Krugman suggests that the trends of increasing home sales, declining unemployment claims and rising builders’ confidence should provide room for the optimistic view that America is experiencing an incipient recovery. Indeed, the main threat to this recovery is does not come from within the country, but from the still-continuing Eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
So, how will Malaysia’s economy perform in 2012? The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2012 global GDP growth forecast to 4% from its previous forecast of 5.1%, due primarily to global uncertainties surrounding the Eurozone crisis (again), and cuts to this forecast would be undertaken later this year. While Malaysia’s growth was more resilient at an average of 5.1% across the first three quarters of 2011, its growth rates for the Industrial Production Index, Retail Trade Index and Residential Property Index have declined significantly. Further, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has discovered that consumer sentiment in Malaysia has worsened quite a bit. Overall, economic growth and sentiment has moderated in 2011 and will become more unstable in 2012.
While we cannot do much about global economic uncertainties, the following items can and should be handled well to ensure our continued economic dynamism.
While Malaysia’s score in Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index has improved slightly from 4.4 in 2010 to 4.3 in 2011 (with 0 being the most corrupt and 10 being the cleanest), its ranking has worsened from 56 in 2010 to 60 in 2011, perhaps due to anti-corruption efforts in other countries. A study by IMF economist Paolo Mauro (1985) shows that, “if a given country were to improve its corruption "grade" from 6 out of 10 to 8 out of 10, its investment-GDP ratio would rise by almost 4 percentage points and its annual growth of GDP per capita would rise by almost half a percentage point." In other words, the less the corruption, the higher the economic benefits and savings.
We should all have heard of this by now: US-based financial integrity watchdog Global Financial integrity (GFI) reported that Malaysia’s illicit money outflows in the 2000-2008 period was RM 888 billion, ranking fifth behind China, Russia, Mexico and Saudi Arabia. How much of that sum was actually due to corruption rather than organised crime such as human trafficking and smuggling is unclear, but the very fact that an uproar has ensued in Malaysia shows that the corruption perception among the people is not very pretty indeed. Remember that measuring corruption is always a matter of measuring the perception of corruption, and as I have mentioned in my previous articles, intangible indicators such as perception and confidence are what drive an entire economy, at least in the short-term.
• Public debt
The Star reported in October 2011 that Malaysia’s public debt rose 12.3% to RM 407 billion in 2010, according to the Auditor-General. The ratio of the Federal Government's debt to GDP at the end of 2010 was 53.1%, which was over 50% for the second year in a row, and with Act 637 of the Loan (Local) Act 1959 and Act 275 of the Government Investment Act 1983 recommending that combined loans raised domestically should not exceed a ceiling of 55% of the nation's GDP, we are fast approaching our legislated debt ceiling.
The data speak for themselves. In 2010, Malaysian government revenue was RM159.65bil which was an increase of 0.6% over 2009 revenue. However, operating expenditure and development expenditure were RM151.63 billion and RM52.79 billion respectively, and the gap between revenue and expenditure must be covered by debt. In fact, Malaysia has run budget deficits for all but 5 years since 1970, which if handled sustainably (i.e. devotion of resources to investment and development) is beneficial to the economy. If not, the budget deficit will be wasted due to leakages and low productivity, and its negative effects will cascade through the economy.
Is Malaysia on the road to glory in the year 2012? Only time will tell.